The Winner's Curse 下载 fb2 pdf rb kindle 115盘 极速 azw3

Richard Thaler challenges the received economic wisdom by revealing many of the paradoxes that abound even in the most painstakingly constructed transactions. He presents literate, challenging, and often funny examples of such anomalies as why the winners at auctions are often the real losers - they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse" - why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, why shoppers will save on one appliance only to pass up the identical savings on another, and why sports fans who wouldn't pay more than $200 for a Super Bowl ticket wouldn't sell one they own for less than $400. He also demonstrates that markets do not always operate with the traplike efficiency we impute to them.

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这是人类思维的本性，一件你喜欢的并已据为己有使用了很长时间的物品，无论是一件财产还是一个观点，都会深深地根植于你的躯体之中，不管你是怎么得到的，在你没有对它产生厌倦并试图摆脱之前，它是不会轻易被夺走的。

库恩：发现开始于对反常事物的认知，进而，这种对自然以某种方式偏离了预定轨道的认知，指导了人正常的科学发展。

说谎的麻烦在于，你必须对所说的话有完美的记忆。

1月效应主要是小型公司效应。

A theorist will sweat long and hard on a problem, finally achieving a new insight previously unknown to economists. The theorist then assumes that the agents in a theoretical model act as if they also understood this new insight. In assuming that the agents in the economy intuitively grasp what it took so long to work out, the theorist is either showing uncharacteristic modesty and generosity, or is guilty of ascribing too much rationality to the agents in his model. As Kenneth Arrow (1986, p.391) has said:"We have the curious situation that scientific analysis imputes scientific behavior to its subjects. This need not be a contradiction, but it does seem to lead to an infinite regress."

Postdecision surprise will occur for any decision with great uncertainty and/or with many alternatives. Thus, the following should be true: For any organization hiring a new employee, the more candidates interviewed, the better the candidate they hire will be, and the more likely that candidate will fail to live up to the organization's expectations. Similarly, Brown (1974) discusses the case of capital investment projects within a firm. If many such projects are considered, and only a few are selected, then actual net revenues will tend to be less than projected, even if the projections are unbiased for the complete set of projects considered.

书籍介绍

Richard Thaler challenges the received economic wisdom by revealing many of the paradoxes that abound even in the most painstakingly constructed transactions. He presents literate, challenging, and often funny examples of such anomalies as why the winners at auctions are often the real losers - they pay too much and suffer the "winner's curse" - why gamblers bet on long shots at the end of a losing day, why shoppers will save on one appliance only to pass up the identical savings on another, and why sports fans who wouldn't pay more than $200 for a Super Bowl ticket wouldn't sell one they own for less than $400. He also demonstrates that markets do not always operate with the traplike efficiency we impute to them.